The Seahawks Will Win the Super Bowl IF…

Seattle Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks

I have been an avid sports fan, and specifically a Seattle sports fan, for over 40 years and I have never seen, heard, felt, or experienced the enthusiastic anticipation of the coming Seattle Seahawk NFL season. It’s as if the team has already won a Super Bowl Championship and we’re all just reveling in the euphoria. But let’s be perfectly clear, the Seahawks haven’t done squat yet. However, I have no desire to pop this still inflating balloon. I too think my team will make it to the ultimate sporting event in frigid, frozen New York City next February, and they will beat whoever the AFC offers up as its sacrificial lamb for slaughter to the clearly superior NFC. But first things first. The football team that calls my city its practice home must first win its own division. Should it do so an NFL Championship is something that I feel is almost a foregone conclusion. However, ending the season with a better record than San Francisco’s 49ers, St Louis’s Rams, and Arizona’s Cardinals is not a foregone conclusion. In fact, I’m not completely sure it will happen.

The San Francisco 49ers' Super Bowl XXIX troph...

All of the Emerald City is enjoying the numerous jokes made at the expense of the Bay area team, and is clearly in full-hate-mode over the Niner’s Head Coach Jim Harbaugh. The non-NFL Seattle fan is oblivious to how very, very good S.F. is, and what an exceptional coach the former University of Michigan Quarterback actually is. San Fran played in last year’s Super Bowl. They didn’t blow a lead in a playoff game they took with only 30-seconds left in the game. Seattle did. Russell Wilson after brilliant performance in Atlanta The fact is the 49ers came 3-points and a late 4th quarter goal-line stand from Baltimore from the largest Super Bowl comeback win in history. They feel they should have won and they will be hungry to get back to where they came up so close, but lost.

Quick; which of the four teams in Seattle’s NFC West Division had the best record within the division. Would it surprise you to know it wasn’t the division champion 49ers, or the Wildcard playoff entrant, second place Seahawks. Under first year Coach Jeff Fischer the St. Louis Rams finished 4-1-1 against S.F., Seattle and Arizona. Their 7-9 record was a huge leap from the 2-win (2-14) team of 2011. St Louis still has former Heisman Trophy winner (and AdvoCare endorser) Sam Bradford at QB. But for the first time in his short career he has someone to throw to. With their first round draft pick this year Fischer chose the best receiver in the draft in Tavon Austin. Austin has crazy speed (4.2 time in the 40) and electric moves. He’ll also help the Rams return game. Fischer is a very good coach, and with one year under his tutelage the Rams will be better…how much better remains to be seen.

The Arizona Cardinals are probably the 4th place team in this division, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be formidable. Many think the Cardinals new QB, Carson Palmer, is too old and past his prime when he was in Cincinnati.  I’m not so sure. He managed to throw for over 4000-yards last year for a horrible Oakland team. And now he has Larry Fitzgerald to throw the ball to. Arizona also improved its weak offensive line in the draft and added the Honey Badger to its defense.

The key to a Super Bowl trip for Seattle will be winning the division, like they did in 2005, the only other time the Northwest’s team went to the Championship spectacle. Win the division and secure the 1st or 2nd best record in the NFC and Seattle needs only win 2 playoff games to win the NFC Crown. And they would have at least 1 playoff game at CenturyLink Field where they do not lose. They didn’t all last year.

English: Picture of the 12th Man Flag at Centu...

Fail to secure the 1st or 2nd best record in the conference and Seattle needs 3 playoff wins to make it to the Super Bowl, with the likelihood that all will be on the road; not an unprecedented achievement, but certainly a lot tougher. Besides, given their sky-high expectations, if Seattle doesn’t have the 1st or 2nd best record in the conference four months from now I will assume that something has gone wrong, perhaps an injury to Russell Wilson or a defensive line that can still not put enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks; making a 3 game run to the Super Bowl less likely.

Seattle has everything it needs to win now, even with one of the youngest rosters in the league. They will continue to pound the ball with Marshawn Lynch leading the way. And running the ball wins playoff games…and a lot of regular season games too. They finally have a All Pro potential quarterback in the exciting Wilson. Remember, he was in a quarterback competition all through training camp last year and was severely restricted in play calling by Pete Carroll last year. He’ll be even better this year. A defense that allowed the fewest points in the NFL last year allowed the fewest points in the NFL during the just concluded preseason. And defense wins championships.

In looking at the Seahawks schedule I expect an improvement from their 11-5 record last year to either 12-4 or 13-3. Please…let go of the fantasy of an undefeated season as I’ve heard far too many people throw-about as a possibility on Seattle sports radio stations. An undefeated regular season should never be a goal. Just ask the 2007 New England Patriots how helpful it was for them. Only road games in Atlanta, Houston, San Francisco, and possibly St. Louis would I predict at this early stage as losses. Though Seattle could win any or all of them. But games I now predict as wins could be losses too. Games against Carolina in Charlotte, the Colts in Indianapolis, and home games against the Vikings and Saints won’t be easy. Lose those games along with the ones I expect and this dream of a Super Bowl season will come crashing down to a non-playoff mediocre 8-8 season…just like the 1985 Seahawks who were also being talked about as Super Bowl contenders. See…it can happen. I repeat Seattle hasn’t won anything…yet. But they will. I predict. Thanks for visiting. Comments are welcome.

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Really looking forward to Mariner season.

The Mariner Moose, mascot of the Seattle Mariners.

Mariner Moose

Don’t be misled by the headline to this blog. I’m not delusional about my home town team’s chances in the coming 2012 Major League Baseball season. I realize the Seattle Mariner‘s are a young and flawed team and they aren’t likely to go anywhere but home when the 162 game schedule wraps up October 3rd. But I predict the Northwest’s baseball fans will embrace these kids and make Safeco Field a fun place to go again.

I’ll admit that I was disappointed when it was revealed this week that

English: Prince Fielder doing pre-game stretch...

Cecil Fielder

Cecil Fielderwas not going to hit for the M’s. The 275 pound slugging first baseman inked a 9-year $214-million deal with the Detroit Tigers. The Mariner’s weak hitters and inept offense over the previous two years made an acquisition of a power hitter like Fielder mandatory for the team to avoid another boring season of 2-1 losses stacked on top of each other. But can you really blame General Manager Jack Zduriencik for exercising some fiscal responsibility, and not acting desperate by giving in to super-agent

Scott Boras

Scott Boras

Scott Boras’ demands for a long and extraordinary contract with a player whose physical build may have him breaking down than most other chiseled athletes who make up professional baseball today. Don’t forget, unlike the NFL, baseball contracts are guaranteed. Fielder will be collecting his $20+ million each year until 2021 even if by 2016 he can’t waddle down the first base line fast enough to beat out a throw from the parking lot. To have gotten the former Milwaukee power hitter Jack Z would have had to commit to at least as many years and probably more dollars. Maybe as much as $230-million.

It became fairly evident the M’s were out of the Fielder sweepstakes last week when we heard about the team’s trade of its number two pitcher Michael Pineda

Michael Pineda

Michael Pineda

to the New York Yankees for catching and designated-hitter prospect Jesus Montero. In many evaluations Montero is the best prospect in all the Major Leagues. And by giving up a proven front line pitcher like Pineda, he better be. A team doesn’t usually part with a number 1 or 2 pitcher without getting a player at or near All Star caliber. With Montero we only have his experience with the Bronx Bombers last September to evaluate what his power bat will do in the Major Leagues. His only month of Major League experience proved mighty tasty though. Jesus (pronounced Hay-Zeus) hit .328 with four home runs and 12 RBI in just 61 at-bats. He’ll hit. I’m confident. Whether he’ll be a liability behind the plate remains to be seen. But my view is he couldn’t be much worse than we’ve had in recent years. Miguel Olivo was set to be the backstop going into this year. And while his ability to throw out runners is top-notch, and his calling of the game appears to serve Seattle well; Olivo also led the Majors in passed-balls and only hit only .224 and dropped off steadily as the year wore on. Great guy? Sure. But Montero can do better.

Now look at what else came Seattle’s way late last year and turned a record-paced piss poor offense into something a little better than awful. Former number 1 draft pick Dustin Ackley

Looking toward Qwest (football) Field and Down...

It'll be fun at Safeco again.

played a solid 2nd base and hit .273 with 6 homers. Mike Carp was hitting as well as anyone in the big leagues for most of July and August before slowing somewhat finishing with a .276 average and 12 homers, many of them very well-timed. Casper Wells came from Detroit and showed flashes with the bat and a very dependable glove. If Franklin Gutierrez doesn’t have a bounce back year, which he should, Wells could be an adequate Center Fielder.

Then there’s Justin Smoak, the switch hitting powerful first baseman we got from Texas in the Cliff Lee trade. In his first full season in the Major’s Smoak (I just love his name) hit only .234 with 15 HRs. But folks…his Dad died in April and in August he was hit in the eye socket by a pitch. For those who have never lost a parent let me tell you it doesn’t leave you at your best in terms of work performance. Work just seems all-together unimportant for an extend period while you grieve the loss of someone you were very close to, as Smoak was with his father. Smoak has shown enough of what it takes to continue to believe the forecasts for his Major League stardom are still possible.

And even with the loss of Pineda the Mariner’s have a solid core of pitchers led by All Star and 2010 Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez.

The M’s play in the same division as two-time American League Champion Texas, who just signed Japanese pitching ace Yu Darvish; and the Los Angeles Angels who not only have MLB’s best Manager in Mike Scoscia but also picked up Albert Pujols in free-agency…only the best player in baseball for the past ten years. Seattle can’t compete with these teams. Not in 2012. But won’t it be fun watching a team of young 20-somethings fight and claw and scratch and improve and give us some legitimate promise in years to come. Just remember the old franchise slogan “Ya gotta love these guys” was created for a team built around

Ken Griffey, Jr.

Ken Griffey Jr. was the star of the 1995 Mariners

Ken Griffey Jr., Jay Buhner, Edgar Martinez, Dan Wilson, Tino Martinez, Randy Johnson, Joey Cora, Alex Rodriguez and others. Back in the early to mid-90s they were all together and they were all young at that time. And as they grew so did the team’s success and the fun. I think we’ll love these NEW guys.

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The Seahawks new QB!

Seattle Seahawks helmet

Seattle needs a quarterback

Lets start this blog with the most obvious statement I have ever typed…the Seahawks need a new quarterback if they are going to ever be a Super Bowl contender. Tarvaris Jackson served as this year’s stop-gap between an aging and increasingly fragile Matt Hasselback and the young untested quarterback the Seahawks will pick in this upcoming NFL Draft. At least that’s what we’ve been led to believe.

The fact that Jackson was a stop-gap is hardly a question. General Manager John Schneider signed Jackson for a fraction of what Hasselback was asking. And the length of the deal is only two years. So what’s the risk?…they asked themselves. They have a 4 year veteran with a moderate career QB rating of 79.1 and they aren’t committing a lot of dough in the process.

What I think is more in debate is where that next quarterback of the future is going to come from. Given that Seattle is so good that they won’t pick any higher than 11th in the coming allocation of college talent all the best quarterbacks that you could possibly bank on may be off the board. Yes, I know Tom Brady was a 7th round draft pick. But I’m talking about someone you can plan to be good nearly from the start. Everyone knows Brady is the exception to the norm.

The 15-1 Green Bay Packers didn’t play this year’s MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers in their last game against the 10-6 playoff bound Detroit Lions. You may have missed this because Green Bay scored 48 points against the Lion’s formidable defense. And Green Bay’s quarterback threw for six touchdowns and 480 yards; both Packer records. And …to repeat…it wasn’t Aaron Rodgers.

English: Green Bay Packers back-up quarterback...

Packer's back up QB Matt Flynn

Talk of Matt Flynn as a quality quarterback existed long before his record day against the Detroit Lions. Someone is going to make this 26-year old a very rich man.  And it’s not as if Flynn has no history of success behind him.

LSU QB Matt Flynn drops back to pass against T...

Flynn won a National Title at LSU

His relative anonymity comes from four years in the NFL as Rodgers backup and only one year as a starter at Louisiana State University where he backed up eventual Number 1 NFL Draft pick JaMarcus Russell. So…what did he do in his one year as a starter at LSU? He led the Bayou Bengals to a National Title, beating Ohio State in the BCS National Title game.

Here is the best news about acquiring Flynn to be next year’s quarterback…he is an unrestricted free agent. So Seattle wouldn’t need to trade anything for him and they wouldn’t need to spend a relatively high draft pick. The only thing that could stand in the way of this free exercise of football capitalism is if the Green Bay Packers tag Flynn with the franchise tag. Doing so would require them to promise a contract to their backup quarterback of $14-million dollars, making trading him very difficult.

Picture of Seahawks Practice Scrimage at Easte...

Mike Holmgren

Plus I like the history. Hasselback was a Green Bay backup to Brett Favre when Mike Holmgren plucked him out of obscurity and turned him into a Pro Bowl quarterback who led Seattle to our only Super Bowl appearance. And they’re both named Matt. And acquiring someone else’s backup as your starter is at least as successful as drafting a quarterback in the first round. Houston’s Matt Schaab, former Husky Mark Brunnel, the aforementioned Favre, Kansas City’s Matt Castel, and Arizona’s Kevin Kolb have all been successful as starters after having apprenticed as an NFL backup to a Pro Bowler. Flynn could be the next guy; the next Matt to be a star quarterback in the NFL.

So scuttle plans to scour over all those useless college statistics for quarterbacks you aren’t going to get anyway. Schneider and Pete Carroll need to fork over the bucks necessary to bring the latest Green Bay Matt to the Puget Sound.

Thanks for visiting. Comments are welcome.