Well…at the time of this posting we’re a little over 1 day from an election some have called the most important election in our time; some have called the most important ever. Based on what we know and what we guess the election race between Republican Mitt Romney and Democratic President Barack Obama is a virtual tie.

Who ultimately wins comes down to who wins a majority of Electoral Votes in 11 states that polls and/or history say are the only ones of the 50 where any doubt exists over who will win. They are (in alphabetical order):

Colorado- 9 electoral votes

Florida- 29

Iowa- 6

Michigan- 16

Nevada- 6

New Hampshire- 4

North Carolina- 15

Ohio- 18

Pennsylvania- 20

Virginia- 13

Wisconsin- 10

Some pundits have said Minnesota, and Oregon are up for grabs. But barring Romney sweeping the Eastern Time zone swing states (and he might) and getting a lot of voter momentum that doesn’t seem likely.

Based on polls, history, common sense, 6th sense, and admittedly some wishful thinking this is where I currently see things going among the swing states:

Romney definitely wins: North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, and Colorado.

Obama definitely wins: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Iowa.

Romney PROBABLY and HOPEFULLY wins: New Hampshire and Wisconsin.

Obama PROBABLY wins: Ohio

The result: Romney wins 271 to Obama 267.

I won’t call the popular vote. It could go either way.

If I’m wrong I’m wrong on either Wisconsin or Ohio or possibly Pennsylvania.

What I’ve learned in this year-long election contest is that Democrats think Republicans are crazy to vote for Romney. They also think Republicans are mean, heartless, lacking in compassion, greedy and longing for the 1950s. They really believe this, and all my efforts to convince my friends otherwise has not changed their thinking.

Republicans think Democrats are absolutely loony for voting for Obama. They also think Democrats are stupid, and lazy, and greedy and stupid and lazy…and oh ya…hypocritical. And most importantly tyrannical. I don’t think most of the Republican claims about Democrats are true. But I do think some of those thoughts are true of some Democrats.

Sadly, the conclusion I come to is that regardless of who wins this country is and will remain seriously divided. These days even natural disasters cause political blame and argument. Hurricane Sandy brought debate from both sides about New Jersey Governor Chris Christie’s gracious and patriotic commentary and treatment of President Obama. Conservatives felt he went way over the top in his praise. Democrats accused him of hypocrisy and based his civility strictly on Christie’s selfish desire for Federal Funds to be  “gifted” to New Jersey. All I can say to both sides is PUUUUHHHHLEEEEZZZZ! Get over yourselves.

And before anyone thinks this is a one time or recent thing just think back to the most recent national emergencies of such size and scope. Hurricane Katrina was political from the moment it hit the shore in August 2005. Democrats…many of them not only accused President George W. Bush of incompetence but of actual racism. REALLY? REALLY? And the financial meltdown of 2008 was purely political and remains so much so to this day that it prevents real and fair decisions from being made. Four years later has the Obama Administration prosecuted any of Wall Street’s big mega-bankers for their complicity in the theft of billions of dollars? Uh…that would be NO. Is that Bush’s fault too? Uh…that would be NO. See…it goes on and on.

Though I didn’t vote for him and I didn’t have confidence in him I wrote several complimentary and encouraging blogs about President Obama following his election win in 2008. I was heartened by the election of America’s first black President and naively felt that our nation’s never-ending battle over race might finally be drawing to a close. I was wrong.

What has happened since George W. Bush was elected in the closest election in U.S. history in 2000 is that Red state‘s have become redder and blue states have become bluer. This election was fought in the narrowest geographic scope in history. Aside from the occasional fund-raiser neither candidate campaigned outside the eleven states mentioned.

The togetherness and American patriotism we ALL felt following the evil vicious attacks of 9-11  is now a distant memory. Efforts of civility on my part and the part of others have been bitch-slapped by the opposition. Faux offense over every little and possible conceived slight is displayed by both sides, such that too many of us stop listening to each other.

What is saddest of all is who is to blame for all this division. It’s our elected leaders and only our elected leaders. Sure we can lower our heads in shame for pulling the lever and putting them in office. But ultimately our leaders are supposed to lead.

I’m tired. Really really tired. I’ve done all I can to civilly and honestly pursued those who disagree that my point of view was correct. They’ve done likewise to me. In the end I wonder if any good came of it. If Romney wins and does much (he won’t do all) of what he says I suppose perhaps the answer is “yes”. I just hope another 9-11 or WWII or even Civil War doesn’t have to transpire in order to bring us together again as Americans. I think Mitt Romney can and will be transformative…but he won’t stand a chance if the opposition continues to not listen and instead paints him and his supporters as evil, greedy…etc. In Obama’s case…we already know THAT’S true.

Thanks for visiting. Comments are welcome.

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• Obama leads but Romney with shot in electoral race (boston.com)
• Michael Barone Calls It for Romney (powerlineblog.com)
• A definitive guide to the eight swing states that will decide the 2012 election | Harry J Enten (guardian.co.uk)
• Obama, Romney blaze through final days of presidential race (en.trend.az)
• Hour by hour: What to watch on Election Night (wcnc.com)
• Obama campaign accuses Romney of desperation in race’s final hours (guardian.co.uk)
• Panel: Obama has electoral college advantage (cbsnews.com)
• Why there won’t likely be an electoral vote/popular vote split – in one map (washingtonpost.com)
• Obama, Romney make last-minute pleas for support in key swing states (windsorstar.com)

November 4, 2012
Categories: National Politics . Tags:a divided country, Barack Obama, current-events, George W. Bush, Mitt Romney, political division, politics, President, presidential election 2000, republicans, swing states, United States, virtual tie . Author: Michael Schuett

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